Die Prognose von Serviceintervallen mit?der?Hazard-Raten-Analyse – Ergebnisse einer empirischen Studie im Automobilmarkt

Mit dem After Sales-Gesch?ft generieren die deutschen Automobilbauer etwa die H?lfte ihrer Gewinne. Gerade vor dem Hintergrund der aktuellen gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklungen, wovon insbesondere das Neuwagengesch?ft betroffen ist, erscheinen Anstrengungen zur Optimierung der kundenindividuellen Ansprache im Service-, Teile- und Wartungsgesch?ft aussichtsreich zu sein. Als Voraussetzung dafür kann das Wissen über die kundenindividuellen Serviceintervalle als entscheidender Wettbewerbsvorteil gesehen werden, denn nur hiermit lassen sich Kunden auch zielgerichtet ansprechen und potenzielle Abwanderungen vermeiden. Genau an diesem Punkt knüpft dieser Beitrag an, indem mit der Hazard-Raten-Analyse ein wissenschaftlich fundiertes und praktikables Verfahren zur Prognose kundenindividueller Serviceintervalle illustriert wird. Da dieses im betriebswirtschaftlichen Kontext ohnehin sehr junge Analyseverfahren bislang überwiegend im FMCG (Fast Moving Consumer Goods)-Bereich auf Scannerdaten zum Einsatz kam, kann dieser Beitrag als Leitfaden für eine Erweiterung im Bereich langlebiger Konsum- und Investitionsgüter gesehen werden. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass der Anteil korrekt gesch?tzter Serviceintervalle die einfache lineare Fortschreibung, die bis dato das Standardverfahren zur Prognose von Serviceintervallen darstellt, um über 20% übertrifft bzw. die Prognosegenauigkeit von ±73 Tagen auf ±38 Tage gesteigert werden kann. Das Erfolgspotenzial einer kundenindividuellen Direktansprache l?sst sich mit dieser substanziellen Verbesserung der zugrunde liegenden Informationsbasis erheblich steigern. Aus der Verbesserung der Prognosegenauigkeit auf kundenindividueller Ebene (Mikroebene) resultiert schlie?lich auch auf der Makroebene (Unternehmensplanung- und steuerung) eine erh?hte Planungssicherheit.     

Web Services for Negotiation and Bargaining in Electronic Markets: Design Requirements, Proof-of-Concepts, and Potential Applications to e-Procurement

Information Systems researchers continue to develop Web services hoping that, in a near future, these services will be widely offered in the e-marketplace, using a Web-based protocol that is universally adopted for posting, locating and invoking available services. Posting services does not, however, necessarily lead to market transactions, and a number of brokering activities are needed to facilitate trade. These include, but are not limited to, service discovery and ranking, price negotiation and contract preparation. We propose a set of Web services that support the process of negotiation and bargaining to facilitate the matching of supply and demand of Web services. As a market broker, these web services would help (a) discover the supply/demand of web services in e-marketplaces; (b) find the most appropriate available service for a specific request; (c) facilitate services be modified if needed to satisfy user's needs; (d) arbitrate the pricing mechanism with the recourse to bargaining whenever necessary; and (e) generate a contract. As a proof of concept, we illustrate the potential use of Web services for negotiation and bargaining in e-procurement.     

整体分析替代纵深研究:基于整体分析研究方法的企业并购理论综述

人们对于现有的关于企业并购行为的研究理论往往不够认可,这主要是因为其不能形成一个理论体系,来解释为何在并购失败率如此之高的情况下,并购行为仍然经久不息。通过分析现有的研究文献,发现造成这一问题的主要原因在于研究思路狭窄,因循守旧。因而,文章努力克服权威化,力图对现有企业并购理论进行一个综合全面的分析,并极力避免因为过于注重每个细节的纵深研究而因小失大。在研究方法上为企业并购理论的整体综合研究开拓了新的起点。同时将帮助中国的学者熟悉国际上有关并购的研究理论成果并融入他们自己的研究。     

Regulating Transport: Behavioural Changes is the Field

The present paper offers a proposal for a conceptual framework which aims at relating, in a systematic way, the development of macro or meso level environmental policies to the empirical evaluation of such policies at the level of individual actors. For this purpose the macro-micro link model of Coleman is integrated with a general social-psychological actor theory (Ajzen's theory of planned behaviour) and the structural equation modelling approach. The proposed framework is applied and empirically tested in the context of a three-wave panel study intended to evaluate the effects of two transport policy interventions (a drastic price reduction for public transport and the introduction of a new bus route). The results of the longitudinal data analyses provide a detailed picture of the short and long term reactions to the interventions both overall and for specific subgroups.     

Generalized confidence intervals for process capability indices in the one-way random model

The method of generalized confidence intervals is proposed as an alternative method for constructing confidence intervals for process capability indices under the one-way random model for balanced as well as unbalanced data. The generalized lower confidence limits and the coverage probabilities for three commonly used capability indices were studied via simulation, separately for balanced and unbalanced cases. Simulation results showed that the generalized confidence interval procedure is quite satisfactory both in the balanced and unbalanced cases. Examples are provided to illustrate the results.     

A Meta‐Analysis of General and Partial Equilibrium Simulations of Trade Liberalisation under the Doha Development Agenda

Model‐based simulation of welfare effects is commonly used to make a case for trade liberalisation and to inform participants and stakeholders in trade negotiations. However, the simulated welfare effects of trade liberalisation vary greatly, even across studies that model similar liberalisation scenarios. This undermines confidence in the reliability of model‐based simulations. A meta‐analysis of over 100 studies that model WTO Doha Development Agenda trade negotiation outcomes is employed to identify characteristics of models, databases and liberalisation experiments that influence simulated welfare effects. Meta‐regressions produce plausible results and explain a significant proportion of the variation in simulated welfare effects in a representative sample of Doha Development Agenda trade liberalisation studies. Results also reveal that many quantitative trade policy simulation studies fail to adequately document the assumptions and data on which they are based.     

Temporary Agency Work and Firm Competitiveness: Evidence from German Manufacturing Firms

This paper addresses the relationship between the utilization of temporary agency workers by firms and their competitiveness measured by unit labor costs, using a rich, newly built, dataset of German manufacturing enterprises. We conduct the analysis by applying different panel data models while taking the inherent selection problem into account. Making use of dynamic panel data models allows us to control for firm‐specific fixed effects as well as for potential endogeneity of explanatory variables. The results indicate an inverse U‐shaped relationship between the extent that temporary agency workers are used and the competitiveness of firms.     

Ansätze und Probleme einer Harmonisierung der Konzernrechnungslegung nach IFRS und der internen Profit-Center-Rechnung

Ohne Zusammenfassung     

Commodity prices and the AUD-Yen exchange rate: a real-time forecasting analysis

I study the impact of the GSCI commodity price indices on the Australian dollar-Japanese yen nominal exchange rate using a modified version of the classic monetary approach of exchange rate determination. I use a broad range of model-selection and model-averaging criteria. I find some evidence for a short-lived relationship as far as inclusions in the optimal forecasting models are concerned. In general, though, results of the Diebold-Mariano and Clark-West test show that results are not stable over the whole sample.     

Mental Health and the ADA: A Focus Group Discussion with Human Resource Practitioners

In 1997, the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission (EEOC) issued new guidelines to clarify implementation of the mental health regulations under the ADA. This paper explores the impact of those guidelines on human resource practices in the workplace. Focus group discussions were conducted with human resource practitioners from over a dozen medium-sized, mid-western corporations. Analysis of the focus group discussions identified four primary issues: underreporting of mental health disabilities; the impact of demographic differences on mental health; misreporting of mental health disabilities; and the impact of the environment on mental health.